DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00854.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942881240
论文题名: Projected changes in the annual cycle of high-intensity precipitation events over West Africa for the late twenty-first century
作者: Sylla M.B. ; Giorgi F. ; Pal J.S. ; Gibba P. ; Kebe I. ; Nikiema M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 16 起始页码: 6475
结束页码: 6488
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Boundary layers
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Floods
; Greenhouse gases
; Africa
; Daily precipitations
; Ensembles
; Extreme events
; Intense precipitation
; Precipitation characteristics
; Regional climate modeling
; Seasonal cycle
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; annual variation
; atmospheric moisture
; boundary layer
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; twenty first century
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
; West Africa
英文摘要: In this study, the response of the annual cycle of high-intensity daily precipitation events over West Africa to anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the late twenty-first century is investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model experiments. For the present day, the RCM ensemble substantially improves the simulation of the annual cycle for various precipitation statistics compared to the driving Earth system models. The late-twenty-first-century projected changes in mean precipitation exhibit a delay of the monsoon season, consistent with previous studies. In addition, these projections indicate a prevailing decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of very wet events, particularly in the premonsoon and early mature monsoon stages, more pronounced over the Sahel and in RCP8.5 than the Gulf of Guinea and in RCP4.5. This is due to the presence of stronger moisture convergence in the boundary layer that sustains intense precipitation once convection is initiated. The premonsoon season experiences the largest changes in daily precipitation statistics, particularly toward an increased risk of drought associated with a decrease in mean precipitation and frequency of wet days and an increased risk of flood associated with very wet events. Both of these features can produce significant stresses on important sectors such as agriculture andwater resources at a time of the year (e.g., the monsoon onset)where such stresses can have stronger impacts. The results thus point toward the importance of analyzing changes of precipitation characteristics as a function of the regional seasonal and subseasonal cycles of rainfall. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50631
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Competence Center, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Graduate Research Program on West African Climate System, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Akure, Nigeria
Recommended Citation:
Sylla M.B.,Giorgi F.,Pal J.S.,et al. Projected changes in the annual cycle of high-intensity precipitation events over West Africa for the late twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(16)