DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942904818
论文题名: Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends
作者: Thompson D.W.J. ; Barnes E.A. ; Deser C. ; Foust W.E. ; Phillips A.S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 16 起始页码: 6443
结束页码: 6456
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Analytical models
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Error statistics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Analytic modeling
; Climate change simulations
; Climate variability
; Control simulation
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Small perturbations
; Trends
; Climate change
; analytical framework
; climate change
; climate variation
; Gaussian method
; numerical model
; regression analysis
; trend analysis
英文摘要: Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty in projections of future climate. The uncertainty in future climate due to internal climate variability can be estimated fromlarge ensembles of climate change simulations in which the experiment setup is the same from one ensemble member to the next but for small perturbations in the initial atmospheric state. However, large ensembles are invariably computationally expensive and susceptible to model bias. Here the authors outline an alternative approach for assessing the role of internal variability in future climate based on a simple analytic model and the statistics of the unforced climate variability. The analytic model is derived from the standard error of the regression and assumes that the statistics of the internal variability are roughly Gaussian and stationary in time. When applied to the statistics of an unforced control simulation, the analytic model provides a remarkably robust estimate of the uncertainty in future climate indicated by a large ensemble of climate change simulations. To the extent that observations can be used to estimate the amplitude of internal climate variability, it is argued that the uncertainty in future climate trends due to internal variability can be robustly estimated from the statistics of the observed climate. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50654
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thompson D.W.J.,Barnes E.A.,Deser C.,et al. Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(16)