DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00367.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922761817
论文题名: New perspectives on observed and simulated Antarctic sea ice extent trends using optimal fingerprinting techniques
作者: Hobbs W.R. ; Bindoff N.L. ; Raphael M.N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1543
结束页码: 1560
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Saline water
; Sea ice
; Antarctic climate
; Confidence levels
; Coupled climate model
; Detectable signal
; Internal variability
; Natural variability
; Optimal fingerprinting technique
; Response to external forcing
; Ice
; atmosphere-ice-ocean system
; climate modeling
; detection method
; glacier dynamics
; glaciology
; ice cover
; sea ice
; Amundsen Sea
; Antarctica
; Bellingshausen Sea
; Ross Sea
; Southern Ocean
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, a detection analysis is performed to determine whether observed trends in Southern Ocean sea ice extent since 1979 are outside the expected range of natural variability. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that for the seasons of maximum sea ice cover (i.e., winter and early spring), the observed trends are not outside the range of natural variability and in some West Antarctic sectors they may be partially due to tropical variability. However, when information about the spatial pattern of trends is included in the analysis, the summer and autumn trends fall outside the range of internal variability. The detectable signal is dominated by strong and opposing trends in the Ross Sea and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea regions. In contrast to the observed pattern, an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 coupled climate models shows that a decrease in Ross Sea ice cover would be expected in response to external forcings. The simulated decreases in the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Seas for the autumn season are significantly different from unforced internal variability at the 95% confidence level. Unlike earlier work, the authors formally show that the simulated sea ice response to external forcing is different from both the observed trends and simulated internal variability and conclude that in general the CMIP5 models do not adequately represent the forced response of the Antarctic climate system. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50656
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, NSW, Australia; CSIRO Marine Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia; ACE CRC, Hobart, TAS, Australia; CAWCR, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hobbs W.R.,Bindoff N.L.,Raphael M.N.. New perspectives on observed and simulated Antarctic sea ice extent trends using optimal fingerprinting techniques[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)