globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942886270
论文题名:
Projected twenty-first-century changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season
作者: Dwyer J.G.; Camargo S.J.; Sobel A.H.; Biasutti M.; Emanuel K.A.; Vecchi G.A.; Zhao M.; Tippett M.K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:15
起始页码: 6181
结束页码: 6192
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements ; Atmospheric temperature ; Climate models ; Greenhouse gases ; Hurricanes ; Oceanography ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Vortex flow ; Atmospheric conditions ; General circulation model ; Global atmospheric models ; Historical records ; Modeling project ; Relevant features ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Twentieth century ; Storms ; atmospheric modeling ; boundary condition ; climate modeling ; cyclogenesis ; downscaling ; greenhouse gas ; tropical cyclone ; twenty first century ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: This study investigates projected changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season due to greenhouse gas increases. Two sets of simulations are analyzed, both of which capture the relevant features of the observed annual cycle of tropical cyclones in the recent historical record. Both sets use output from the general circulation models (GCMs) of either phase 3 or phase 5 of the CMIP suite (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively). In one set, downscaling is performed by randomly seeding incipient vortices into the large-scale atmospheric conditions simulated by each GCM and simulating the vortices' evolution in an axisymmetric dynamical tropical cyclone model; in the other set, the GCMs' sea surface temperature (SST) is used as the boundary condition for a high-resolution global atmospheric model (HiRAM). The downscaling model projects a longer season (in the late twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century) in most basins when using CMIP5 data but a slightly shorter season using CMIP3. HiRAM with either CMIP3 or CMIP5 SST anomalies projects a shorter tropical cyclone season in most basins. Season length is measured by the number of consecutive days that the mean cyclone count is greater than a fixed threshold, but other metrics give consistent results. The projected season length changes are also consistent with the large-scale changes, as measured by a genesis index of tropical cyclones. The season length changes are mostly explained by an idealized year-round multiplicative change in tropical cyclone frequency, but additional changes in the transition months also contribute. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50685
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Dwyer J.G.,Camargo S.J.,Sobel A.H.,et al. Projected twenty-first-century changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)
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