globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00457.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84923033145
论文题名:
Surface temperature probability distributions in the NARCCAP hindcast experiment: Evaluation methodology, metrics, and results
作者: Loikith P.C.; Waliser D.E.; Lee H.; Kim J.; David Neelin J.; Lintner B.R.; Mcginnis S.; Mattmann C.A.; Mearns L.O.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:3
起始页码: 978
结束页码: 997
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Distribution functions ; Higher order statistics ; Surface properties ; Temperature distribution ; Uncertainty analysis ; Evaluation methodologies ; Implications for futures ; Regional climate changes ; Regional climate modeling (RCM) ; Seattle , Washington ; Surface temperature distribution ; Temperature extremes ; Western United States ; Probability distributions ; climate modeling ; hindcasting ; probability ; regional climate ; surface temperature ; temperature profile ; uncertainty analysis ; weather forecasting ; California ; Canada ; Houston ; Los Angeles [California] ; Texas ; United States
英文摘要: Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A surface temperature dataset combining gridded station observations and reanalysis is employed as the primary reference. Temperature biases are documented across the distribution, focusing on the median and tails. Temperature variance is generally higher in the RCMs than reference, while skewness is reasonably simulated in winter over the entire domain and over the western United States and Canada in summer. Substantial differences in skewness exist over the southern and eastern portions of the domain in summer. Four examples with observed long-tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs) are selected for model comparison. Long cold tails in the winter are simulated with high fidelity for Seattle, Washington, and Chicago, Illinois. In summer, theRCMs are unable to capture the distribution width and long warm tails for the coastal location of Los Angeles, California, while long cold tails are poorly realized for Houston, Texas. The evaluation results are repeated using two additional reanalysis products adjusted by station observations and two standard reanalysis products to assess the impact of observational uncertainty. Results are robust when compared with those obtained using the adjusted reanalysis products as reference, while larger uncertainties are introduced when standard reanalysis is employed as reference. Model biases identified in this work will allow for further investigation into associated mechanisms and implications for future simulations of temperature extremes. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50708
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Institute for Mathematical Applications to the Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Loikith P.C.,Waliser D.E.,Lee H.,et al. Surface temperature probability distributions in the NARCCAP hindcast experiment: Evaluation methodology, metrics, and results[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(3)
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