DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942053396
论文题名: On the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate: Lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea ice
作者: García-Serrano J. ; Frankignoul C. ; Gastineau G. ; de la Cámara A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 13 起始页码: 5195
结束页码: 5216
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Mechanical waves
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Transient analysis
; Empirical predictions
; Maximum covariance analysis
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Precipitation anomalies
; Sea ice concentration
; Significance levels
; Stratospheric vortex
; Surface air temperatures
; Ice
; air temperature
; autumn
; climate prediction
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; precipitation assessment
; Rossby wave
; sea ice
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Europe
; Kara Sea
英文摘要: Satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) and reanalyzed atmospheric data are used to explore the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate resulting from autumn SIC variability over the Barents- Kara Seas region (SIC/BK). The period of study is 1979/80- 2012/13. Maximum covariance analyses show that the leading predictand is indistinguishable from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The leading covariability mode between September SIC/BK and winter North Atlantic- European sea level pressure (SLP) is not significant, indicating that no empirical prediction skill can be achieved. The leading covariability mode with either October or November SIC/BK is moderately significant (significance levels <10%), and both predictor fields yield a cross-validated NAO correlation of 0.3, suggesting some empirical prediction skill of the winter NAO index, with sea ice reduction in the Barents- Kara Seas being accompanied by a negative NAO phase in winter. However, only November SIC/BK provides significant cross-validated skill of winter SLP, surface air temperature, and precipitation anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector, namely in southwestern Europe. Statistical analysis suggests that November SIC/BK anomalies are associated with a Rossby wave train- like anomaly across Eurasia that affects vertical wave activity modulating the stratospheric vortex strength, which is then followed by downward propagation of anomalies that impact transient-eddy activity in the upper troposphere, helping to settle and maintain the NAO-like pattern at surface. This stratospheric pathway is not detected when using October SIC/BK anomalies. Hence, only November SIC/BK, with a onemonth lead time, could be considered as a potential source of regional predictability. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50709
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Université Paris 06), CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (IPSL/CNRS), École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
García-Serrano J.,Frankignoul C.,Gastineau G.,et al. On the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate: Lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea ice[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)