| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00418.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84921677491
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| 论文题名: | Changes in U.S. East Coast cyclone dynamics with climate change |
| 作者: | Marciano C.G.; Lackmann G.M.; Robinson W.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 28, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 468
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| 结束页码: | 484
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric humidity
; Boundary conditions
; Dynamics
; Sea level
; Storms
; Vorticity
; Weather forecasting
; Atmospheric water vapor
; Clausius Clapeyron relation
; Diabatic potentials
; Extratropical cyclones
; Lateral boundary conditions
; Potential vorticity diagnostics
; Thermodynamic changes
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate change
; climate change
; cyclone
; extratropical environment
; potential vorticity
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea level pressure
; thermodynamics
; Atlantic Coast [North America]
; Atlantic Coast [United States]
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | Previous studies investigating the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones have primarily focused on changes in the frequency, intensity, and distribution of these events. Fewer studies have directly investigated changes in the storm-scale dynamics of individual cyclones. Precipitation associated with these events is projected to increase with warming owing to increased atmospheric water vapor content. This presents the potential for enhancement of cyclone intensity through increased lower-tropospheric diabatic potential vorticity generation. This hypothesis is tested using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to simulate individual wintertime extratropical cyclone events along the United States East Coast in present-day and future thermodynamic environments. Thermodynamic changes derived from an ensemble of GCMs for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A2 emissions scenario are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of observed strongly developing cyclone events, holding relative humidity constant. The perturbed boundary conditions are then used to drive future simulations of these strongly developing events. Present-to-future changes in the storm-scale dynamics are assessed using Earth-relative and storm-relative compositing. Precipitation increases at a rate slightly less than that dictated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation with warming. Increases in cyclone intensity are seen in the form of minimum sea level pressure decreases and a strengthened 10-m wind field. Amplification of the low-level jet occurs because of the enhancement of latent heating. Storm-relative potential vorticity diagnostics indicate a strengthening of diabatic potential vorticity near the cyclone center, thus supporting the hypothesis that enhanced latent heat release is responsible for this regional increase in future cyclone intensity. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. |
| 资助项目: | NSF, National Science Foundation
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50717
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Marciano C.G.,Lackmann G.M.,Robinson W.A.. Changes in U.S. East Coast cyclone dynamics with climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)
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