DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00131.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921685631
论文题名: Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high-resolution global climate models
作者: Roberts M.J. ; Vidale P.L. ; Mizielinski M.S. ; Demory M.-E. ; Schiemann R. ; Strachan J. ; Hodges K. ; Bell R. ; Camp J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 2 起始页码: 574
结束页码: 596
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Wind
; African easterly jet
; African easterly waves
; Global climate model
; Global climate model simulations
; Interannual variability
; Northern Hemispheres
; Resolution increase
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Climate models
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; easterly wave
; ensemble forecasting
; global climate
; jet stream
; Northern Hemisphere
; Southern Hemisphere
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
英文摘要: The U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3 (GA3) configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km), and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high-impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African easterly waves and the African easterly jet. However, the intensity of the modeled tropical cyclones as measured by 10-m wind speed remains weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more strong storms. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50720
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Willis Research Fellow, Knowledge Transfer Partnership, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Roberts M.J.,Vidale P.L.,Mizielinski M.S.,et al. Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high-resolution global climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)