DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00526.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942903910
论文题名: Northern East Asian monsoon precipitation revealed by airmass variability and its prediction
作者: Seo K.-H. ; Son J.-H. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Park H.-S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 15 起始页码: 6221
结束页码: 6233
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Linear regression
; Regression analysis
; Surface waters
; Atmospheric oscillations
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Monsoons
; Multiple linear regression models
; Potential temperature
; Sea surface temperatures
; Statistical forecasting
; Teleconnection patterns
; Oceanography
; air mass
; climate oscillation
; El Nino
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; warming
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Far East
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: This work provides a new perspective on the major factors controlling the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in July and a promising physical-statistical forecasting of the EASM ahead of summer. Dominant modes of the EASM are revealed from the variability of large-scale air masses discerned by equivalent potential temperature, and they are found to be dynamically connected with the anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the three major oceans of the world and their counterparts of prevailing atmospheric oscillation or teleconnection patterns. Precipitation over northern East Asia (NEA) during July is enhanced by the tropical central Indian Ocean warming and central Pacific El Niño-related SST warming, the northwestern Pacific cooling off the coast of NEA, and the North Atlantic Ocean warming. Using these factors and data from the preceding spring seasons, the authors build a multiple linear regression model for seasonal forecasting. The cross-validated correlation skill predicted for the period 1994 to 2012 is up to 0.84, which far exceeds the skill level of contemporary climate models. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50748
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Division of Earth Environmental Systems, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Seo K.-H.,Son J.-H.,Lee J.-Y.,et al. Northern East Asian monsoon precipitation revealed by airmass variability and its prediction[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)