DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0148.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945474745
论文题名: Interhemispheric aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts during the late Twentieth Century
作者: Allen R.J. ; Evan A.T. ; Booth B.B.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 20 起始页码: 8219
结束页码: 8246
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Through the latter half of the twentieth century, meridional shifts in tropical precipitation have been associated with severe droughts. Although linked to a variety of causes, the origin of these shifts remains elusive. Here, it is shown that they are unlikely to arise from internal variability of the climate system alone, as simulated by coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Similar to previous work, the authors find that anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols are the dominant drivers of simulated twentieth-century tropical precipitation shifts. Models that include the cloud-albedo and lifetime aerosol indirect effects yield significantly larger shifts than models that lack aerosol indirect effects and also reproduce most of the southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. However, all models significantly underestimate the magnitude of the observed shifts in the Atlantic sector, unless driven by observed SSTs. Mechanistically, tropical precipitation shifts are driven by interhemispheric sea surface temperature variations, which are associated with hemispherically asymmetric changes in low-latitude surface pressure, winds, and low clouds, as well as the strength, location, and cross-equatorial energy transport of the Hadley cells. Models with a larger hemispheric aerosol radiative forcing gradient yield larger hemispheric temperature contrasts and, in turn, larger meridional precipitation shifts. The authors conclude that aerosols are likely the dominant driver of the observed southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. Aerosols are also significant drivers of the Atlantic shifts, although one cannot rule out a contribution from natural variability to account for the magnitude of the observed shifts. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50758
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Allen R.J.,Evan A.T.,Booth B.B.B.. Interhemispheric aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts during the late Twentieth Century[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(20)