DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00793.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957668018
论文题名: Water under a changing and uncertain climate: Lessons from climate model ensembles
作者: Boehlert B. ; Solomon S. ; Strzepek K.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9561
结束页码: 9582
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cost estimating
; Electric power system interconnection
; Investments
; Irrigation
; Runoff
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Water supply
; Ensembles
; General circulation model
; Hydrologic models
; Interannual variability
; Irrigation water requirements
; Model comparison
; Probabilistic evaluation
; Spatial and temporal patterns
; Climate change
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; hydrological modeling
; runoff
; water resource
; Africa
; Europe
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change and rapidly rising global water demand are expected to place unprecedented pressures on already strained water resource systems. Successfully planning for these future changes requires a sound scientific understanding of the timing, location, and magnitude of climate change impacts on water needs and availability-not only average trends but also interannual variability and quantified uncertainties. In recent years, two types of large-ensemble runs of climate projections have become available: Those from groups of more than 20 different climate models and those from repeated runs of several individual models. These provide the basis for novel probabilistic evaluation of both projected climate change and the resulting effects on water resources. Using a broad range of available ensembles, this research explores the spatial and temporal patterns of high confidence as well as uncertainty in projected river runoff, irrigation water requirements, basin storage yield, and cost estimates of adapting regional water systems to maintain historical supply. Projections of river runoff show robust between-ensemble agreement in regional drying (e.g., southern Africa and southern Europe) and wetting trends (e.g., northeastern United States). By integrating runoff over space and time, the economic effects of adapting supply systems to 2050 water availability show still broader trend agreement across ensembles. That agreement, obtained across such a wide range of multiple-member climate model ensembles in some locations, suggests a high degree of confidence in direction of change in water availability and provides clearer signals for longer-term investment decisions in water infrastructure. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50811
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Industrial Economics, Inc., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Boehlert B.,Solomon S.,Strzepek K.M.. Water under a changing and uncertain climate: Lessons from climate model ensembles[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)