DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942928105
论文题名: How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions
作者: Ummenhofer C.C. ; Xu H. ; Twine T.E. ; Girvetz E.H. ; McCarthy H.R. ; Chhetri N. ; Nicholas K.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 12 起始页码: 4653
结束页码: 4687
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Forestry
; Australia
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emissions scenarios
; Hydroclimatic conditions
; North America
; Season precipitation
; South-eastern Australia
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate variation
; crop production
; crop yield
; cropping practice
; downscaling
; growth response
; maize
; twenty first century
; wheat
; yield response
; Australia
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMMgrowing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°-4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southernAustralia acrossmodels is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50825
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States; International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya, and Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA, United States; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Ummenhofer C.C.,Xu H.,Twine T.E.,et al. How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(12)