DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00196.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942086553
论文题名: A hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling technique. Part I: Development and validation of the technique
作者: Walton D.B. ; Sun F. ; Hall A. ; Capps S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 12 起始页码: 4597
结束页码: 4617
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Statistics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; Regional effects
; Regional model
; Statistical techniques
; Statistical methods
; air temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; model validation
; prediction
; regional climate
; statistical analysis
; California
; Los Angeles [California]
; United States
英文摘要: In this study (Part I), themid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical-statistical technique. This technique combines the ability of dynamical downscaling to capture finescale dynamics with the computational savings of a statistical model to downscale multiple GCMs. First, dynamical downscaling is applied to five GCMs. Guided by an understanding of the underlying local dynamics, a simple statistical model is built relating the GCM input and the dynamically downscaled output. This statistical model is used to approximate the warming patterns of the remaining GCMs, as if they had been dynamically downscaled. The full 32-member ensemble allows for robust estimates of the most likely warming and uncertainty resulting from intermodel differences. The warming averaged over the region has an ensemble mean of 2.3°C, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 1.0° to 3.6°C. Inland and high elevation areas warm more than coastal areas year round, and by as much as 60% in the summermonths.Acomparison to other common statistical downscaling techniques shows that the hybrid method produces similar regional-mean warming outcomes but demonstrates considerable improvement in capturing the spatial details. Additionally, this hybrid technique incorporates an understanding of the physical mechanisms shaping the region's warming patterns, enhancing the credibility of the final results. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50840
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Walton D.B.,Sun F.,Hall A.,et al. A hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling technique. Part I: Development and validation of the technique[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(12)