DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00775.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945949956
论文题名: Assessment of the sources of variation in changes of precipitation characteristics over the Rhine basin using a linear mixed-effects model
作者: Hanel M. ; Buishand T.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 17 起始页码: 6903
结束页码: 6919
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Akaike information criterion
; Atmospheric circulation model
; Climate change projections
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Linear mixed-effects model
; Precipitation characteristics
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; Akaike information criterion
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; statistical analysis
; Rhine Basin
英文摘要: A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is developed to discriminate the sources of variation in the changes of several precipitation characteristics over the Rhine basin as projected by an ensemble of 191 global climate model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The uncertainty in climate change projections originates from natural internal variability, imperfect climate models, and the unpredictability of future greenhouse gas forcing. The LME model allows for the quantification of the contribution of these sources of uncertainty as well as the interaction between greenhouse gas forcing and climate model. In addition, dependence between climate models can be accounted for by using a two-level LME model in which the GCMs are grouped according to their atmospheric circulation model. Statistical models of varied complexity are assessed by the Akaike information criterion. More than 60% of the variance of the changes in mean summer precipitation and various quantiles of 5-day summer precipitation at the end of the twenty-first century can be explained by the climate model. Differences between climate models are also the main source of uncertainty for the changes in three drought characteristics in the summer half-year. In winter, the differences between GCMs are smaller, and natural variability explains a large proportion of the variance of the changes. Natural variability is also the main source of uncertainty for the changes in two indices of extreme precipitation. The contribution of the forcing scenario to the variance of the changes is generally less than 25%. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50850
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Applied Mathematics, Technical University of Liberec, Liberec, Czech Republic; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Hanel M.,Buishand T.A.. Assessment of the sources of variation in changes of precipitation characteristics over the Rhine basin using a linear mixed-effects model[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(17)