DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00800.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947748371
论文题名: Patterns of precipitation change and climatological uncertainty among CMIP5 models, with a focus on the midlatitude pacific storm track
作者: Langenbrunner B. ; Neelin J.D. ; Lintner B.R. ; Anderson B.T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 19 起始页码: 7857
结束页码: 7872
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Functions
; Orthogonal functions
; Storms
; Wind effects
; Atmospheric circulation
; Coupled models
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Model errors
; Model evaluation/performance
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric convection
; climate modeling
; mesoscale meteorology
; precipitation (climatology)
; storm track
; zonal wind
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Projections of modeled precipitation (P) change in globalwarming scenarios demonstratemarked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robustmode calculated when applying these techniques to amultimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western NorthAmerica. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P, related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region.However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50853
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Langenbrunner B.,Neelin J.D.,Lintner B.R.,et al. Patterns of precipitation change and climatological uncertainty among CMIP5 models, with a focus on the midlatitude pacific storm track[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(19)