DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00387.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942897082
论文题名: Global seasonal precipitation anomalies robustly associated with El Niño and La Niña events - an OLR perspective
作者: Chiodi A.M. ; Harrison D.E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 15 起始页码: 6133
结束页码: 6159
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Natural convection
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Sea level
; Surface waters
; Weather forecasting
; Climate classification/regimes
; ENSO
; Satellite observations
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical forecasting
; Nickel
; climate change
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; La Nina
; longwave radiation
; precipitation (climatology)
; satellite data
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are associated with particular seasonal weather anomalies in many regions around the planet. When the statistical links are sufficiently strong,ENSO state information can provide useful seasonal forecasts with varying lead times. However, using conventional sea surface temperature or sea level pressure indices to characterize ENSO state leads to many instances of limited forecast skill (e.g., years identified as El Niñoor LaNiña with weather anomalies unlike the average), even in regions where there is considerable ENSO-associated anomaly, on average. Using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) conditions to characterize ENSO state identifies a subset of the conventional ENSO years, called OLR El Niño andOLRLa Niña years herein. Treating the OLR-identified subset of years differently can both usefully strengthen the level of statistical significance in the average (composite) and also greatly reduce the year-toyear deviations in the composite precipitation anomalies. On average, over most of the planet, the non-OLR El Niño and non-OLR La Niña years have much more limited statistical utility for precipitation. The OLR El Niño and OLR La Niña indices typically identify years in time to be of use to boreal wintertime and later seasonal forecasting efforts, meaning that paying attention to tropical Pacific OLR conditions may offer more than just a diagnostic tool. Understanding better how large-scale environmental conditions during ENSO events determine OLR behavior (and deep atmospheric convection) will lead to improved seasonal precipitation forecasts for many areas. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50870
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chiodi A.M.,Harrison D.E.. Global seasonal precipitation anomalies robustly associated with El Niño and La Niña events - an OLR perspective[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)