globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0069.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947590557
论文题名:
Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate response
作者: Frankcombe L.M.; England M.H.; Mann M.E.; Steinman B.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:20
起始页码: 8184
结束页码: 8202
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Separating low-frequency internal variability of the climate system from the forced signal is essential to better understand anthropogenic climate change as well as internal climate variability. Here both synthetic time series and the historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) are used to examine several methods of performing this separation. Linear detrending, as is commonly used in studies of low-frequency climate variability, is found to introduce large biases in both amplitude and phase of the estimated internal variability. Using estimates of the forced signal obtained from ensembles of climate simulations can reduce these biases, particularly when the forced signal is scaled to match the historical time series of each ensemble member. These so-called scaling methods also provide estimates of model sensitivities to different types of external forcing. Applying the methods to observations of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation leads to different estimates of the phase of this mode of variability in recent decades. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50909
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Large Lakes Observatory, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, United States

Recommended Citation:
Frankcombe L.M.,England M.H.,Mann M.E.,et al. Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate response[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(20)
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