DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00853.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957613905
论文题名: Subseasonal predictions of regional summer monsoon rainfall over tropical asian oceans and land
作者: Liu X. ; Yang S. ; Li J. ; Jie W. ; Huang L. ; Gu W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9583
结束页码: 9605
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Interannual variation
; Intraseasonal variability
; Regional characteristics
; Summer monsoon rainfall
; Variability
; Rain
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; forecasting method
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; rainfall
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; surface temperature
; Arabian Sea
; Bay of Bengal
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; South China Sea
英文摘要: Subseasonal predictions of the regional summer rainfall over several tropical Asian ocean and land domains are examined using hindcasts by the NCEP CFSv2. Higher actual and potential forecast skill are found over oceans than over land. The forecast for Arabian Sea (AS) rainfall is most skillful, while that for Indo-China (ICP) rainfall is most unskillful. The rainfall-surface temperature (ST) relationship over AS is characterized by strong and fast ST forcing but a weak and slow ST response, while the relationships over the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea (SCS), and the India subcontinent (IP) show weak and slow ST forcing, but apparently strong and rapid ST response. Land-air interactions are often less noticeable over ICP and southern China (SC) than over IP. The CFSv2 forecasts reasonably reproduce these observed features, but the local rainfall-ST relationships often suffer from different degrees of unrealistic estimation. Also, the observed local rainfall is often related to the circulation over limited regions, which gradually become more extensive in forecasts as lead time increases. The prominent interannual differences in forecast skill of regional rainfall are sometimes associated with apparent disparities in forecasts of local rainfall-ST relationships. Besides, interannual variations of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, featured by obvious changes in frequency and amplitude of certain phases, significantly modulate the forecasts of rainfall over certain regions, especially the SCS and SC. It is further discussed that the regional characteristics of rainfall and model's deficiencies in capturing the influences of local and large-scale features are responsible for the regional discrepancies of actual predictability of rainfall. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50911
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Nantong Meteorological Bureau, Nantong, Jiangsu, China; Zaozhuang Meteorological Bureau, Zaozhuang, Shandong, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu X.,Yang S.,Li J.,et al. Subseasonal predictions of regional summer monsoon rainfall over tropical asian oceans and land[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)