DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00436.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897652068
论文题名: Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence
作者: Murakami H. ; Hsu P.-C. ; Arakawa O. ; Li T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 5 起始页码: 2159
结束页码: 2181
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric general circulation models
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Eastern north pacific
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; North Atlantic Ocean
; North indian oceans
; Southern Hemisphere
; Western North Pacific
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Computer simulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; empirical analysis
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; Southern Hemisphere
; statistical analysis
; tropical cyclone
; Arabian Sea
; Atlantic Ocean
; Bay of Bengal
; Caribbean Sea
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The influence of model biases on projected future changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones (FOCs) was investigated using a new empirical statistical method. Assessments were made of present-day (1979-2003) simulations and future (2075-99) projections, using atmospheric general circulation models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The models project significant decreases in global-total FOCs by approximately 6%-40%; however, model biases introduce an uncertainty of approximately 10%in the total future changes.The influence of biases depends on themodel physics rather than model resolutions and emission scenarios. In general, the biases result in overestimates of projected future changes in basin-total FOCs in the north Indian Ocean (by +18%) and South Atlantic Ocean (+143%) and underestimates in the western North Pacific Ocean (-27%), eastern North Pacific Ocean (-29%), and North Atlantic Ocean (-53%). The calibration of model performance using the smaller bias influence appears crucial to deriving meaningful signals in future FOC projections. To obtain more reliable projections, ensemble averages were calculated using the models less influence by model biases. Results indicate marked decreases in projected FOCs in the basins of the Southern Hemisphere, Bay of Bengal, western North Pacific Ocean, eastern North Pacific, and Caribbean Sea and increases in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical central Pacific Ocean. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50919
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Meteorological Research Institute, Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Hsu P.-C.,Arakawa O.,et al. Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(5)