globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00275.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893873075
论文题名:
Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI
作者: Beraki A.F.; Dewitt D.G.; Landman W.A.; Olivier C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:4
起始页码: 1719
结束页码: 1741
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The recent increase in availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources in South Africa allowed the development of an ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The ECHAM4.5-South African Weather Service (SAWS) Modular Oceanic Model version 3 (MOM3-SA) is the first OAGCM to be developed in Africa for seasonal climate prediction. This model employs an initialization strategy that is different from previous versions of themodel that coupled the same atmosphere and ocean models. Evaluation of hindcasts performed with the model revealed that the OAGCM is successful in capturing the development and maturity of El Niño and LaNiña episodes up to 8 months ahead.Amodel intercomparison also indicated that the ECHAM4.5-MOM3-SA has skill levels for the Niño-3.4 region SST comparable with other coupled models administered by international centers. Further analysis of the coupled model revealed that La Niña events aremore skillfully discriminated than El Niño events.However, as is typical for OAGCM, themodel skill was generally found to decay faster during the spring barrier. The analysis also showed that the coupled model has useful skill up to several-months lead time when predicting the equatorial Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during the period spanning between the middle of austral spring and the start of the summer seasons, which reaches its peak in November. The weakness of the model in other seasonswasmainly caused by thewestern segment of the dipole,which eventually contaminates the dipole mode index (DMI). The model is also able to forecast the anomalous upper air circulations, particularly in the equatorial belt, and surface air temperature in the Southern African region as opposed to precipitation. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50969
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: South African Weather Service, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Natural Resources and the Environment, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; South African Weather Service, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Beraki A.F.,Dewitt D.G.,Landman W.A.,et al. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(4)
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