DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00557.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902095897
论文题名: Land-sea thermal contrast and intensity of the North American monsoon under climate change conditions
作者: Torres-Alavez A. ; Cavazos T. ; Turrent C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 12 起始页码: 4566
结束页码: 4580
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Atmospheric circulation
; Change conditions
; Coastal precipitation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model
; Land-sea thermal contrasts
; Moisture flux convergences
; Season precipitation
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; convergence
; general circulation model
; global warming
; land-sea interaction
; monsoon
; performance assessment
; precipitation intensity
英文摘要: The hypothesis that global warming during the twenty-first century will increase the land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) and therefore the intensity of early season precipitation of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. To test this hypothesis, future changes (2075-99 minus 1979-2004 means) in LSTC, moisture flux convergence (MFC), vertical velocity, and precipitation in the region are analyzed using six global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. A surface LSTC index shows that the continent becomes warmer than the ocean in May in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and in June in the mean ensemble of the GCMs (ens_GCMs), and the magnitude of the positive LSTC is greater in the reanalyses than in the ens_GCMs during the historic period. However, the reanalyses underestimate July-August precipitation in the NAM region, while the ens_GCMs reproduces the peak season surprisingly well but overestimates it the rest of the year. The future ens_GCMs projects a doubling of the magnitude of the positive surface LSTC and an earlier start of the continental summer warming in mid-May. Contrary to the stated hypothesis, however, the mean projection suggests a slight decrease of monsoon coastal precipitation during June-August (JJA), which is attributed to increased midtropospheric subsidence, a reduced midtropospheric LSTC, and reduced MFC in the NAM coastal region. In contrast, the future ens_GCMs produces increased MFC and precipitation over the adjacent mountains during JJA and significantly more rainfall over the entire NAM region during September-October, weakening the monsoon retreat. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51037
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physical Oceanography, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Torres-Alavez A.,Cavazos T.,Turrent C.. Land-sea thermal contrast and intensity of the North American monsoon under climate change conditions[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(12)