DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00519.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84903398980
论文题名: Improvement of initialized decadal predictions over the North Pacific Ocean by systematic anomaly pattern correction
作者: Kim H.-M. ; Ham Y.-M. ; Scaife A.-A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 13 起始页码: 5148
结束页码: 5162
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Error correction
; Forecasting
; Coupled models
; Model comparison
; Model errors
; Model evaluation/performance
; North Pacific
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Oceanography
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; hindcasting
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The prediction skill and errors in surface temperature anomalies in initialized decadal hindcasts from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are assessed using six ocean-atmosphere coupled models initialized every year from 1961 to 2008. The initialized hindcasts show relatively high prediction skill over the regions where external forcing dominates, indicating that a large portion of the prediction skill is dueto the long-term trend. After removing the linear trend, high prediction skill is shown near the centers of action of the dominant decadal climate oscillations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Low prediction skill appears over the tropical and eastern North Pacific Ocean where the predicted anomaly patterns associated with the PDO are systematically different in model and observations. By statistically correcting those systematic errors using a stepwise pattern projectionmethod (SPPM) based on the data in an independent training period, the prediction skill of sea surfacetemperature (SST) is greatly enhanced over the North Pacific Ocean. The SST prediction skill over the North Pacific Ocean after the SPPM error correction is as high as that over the North Atlantic Ocean. In addition, the prediction skill in a single model after correction exceeds the skill of the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean before correction, implying that the MME method is not as effective in addressing systematic errors as the SPPM correction. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51039
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Kim H.-M.,Ham Y.-M.,Scaife A.-A.. Improvement of initialized decadal predictions over the North Pacific Ocean by systematic anomaly pattern correction[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(13)