DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00398.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84900420857
论文题名: A comparative study of precipitation and evaporation between CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles in semiarid regions
作者: Baker N.C. ; Huang H.-P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 10 起始页码: 3731
结束页码: 3749
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Drying
; Evaporation
; Comparative studies
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Hydroclimatic variables
; Mediterranean region
; Model ensembles
; Seasonal cycle
; Semi-arid region
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; ensemble forecasting
; evaporation
; precipitation (climatology)
; semiarid region
; Mediterranean Region
; United States
英文摘要: The twentieth-century climatology and twenty-first-century trend in precipitation P, evaporation E, and P - E for selected semiarid U.S. Southwest and Mediterranean regions are compared between ensembles from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The twentiethcentury simulations are validated with precipitation from observation and evaporation from reanalysis. It is found that the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B simulations in CMIP3 and the simulations with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 produce qualitatively similar seasonal cycles of the twenty-first-century trend in P - E for both semiarid regions. For the southwestern United States, it is characterized by a strong drying trend in spring, a weak moistening trend in summer, a weak drying trend in winter, and an overall drying trend for the annual mean. For the Mediterranean region, a drying trend is simulated for all seasons with an October maximum and July minimum. The consistency between CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios indicates that the simulated trend is robust; however, while the trend in P - E is negative in spring for the southwestern United States for all CMIP ensembles, CMIP3 predicts a strongly negative trend in P and minor negative trend in E whereas both CMIP5 scenarios predict a nearly zero trend in P and positive trend in E. For the twentieth-century simulations, the P, E, and P - E of the two model ensembles are statistically indistinguishable for most seasons. This "stagnation" of the simulated climatology from CMIP3 to CMIP5 implies that the hydroclimatic variable biases have not decreased in the newer generation of models. Notably, over the southwestern United States the CMIP3 models produce too much precipitation in the cold season. This bias remains almost unchanged in CMIP5. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51084
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School for Engineering of Matter, Transport, and Energy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Baker N.C.,Huang H.-P.. A comparative study of precipitation and evaporation between CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles in semiarid regions[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(10)