DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00450.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84900406467
论文题名: Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: Predicting the AMOC regime shifts
作者: Sévellec F. ; Fedorov A.V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 10 起始页码: 3551
结束页码: 3564
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Accurate prediction
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Dansgaard-oeschger events
; Meridional overturning circulations
; Ocean circulation
; Ocean stratification
; Overturning circulation
; Small perturbations
; Oceanography
; accuracy assessment
; Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
; heat transfer
; meridional circulation
; overturn
; prediction
; stratification
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A salient feature of paleorecords of the last glacial interval in the North Atlantic is pronounced millennial variability, commonly known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. It is believed that these events are related to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport. Here, the authors formulate a new low-order model, based on the Howard-Malkus loop representation of ocean circulation, capable of reproducing millennial variability and its chaotic dynamics realistically. It is shown that even in this chaotic model changes in the state of the meridional overturning circulation are predictable. Accordingly, the authors define two predictive indices which give accurate predictions for the time the circulation should remain in the on phase and then stay in the subsequent off phase. These indices depend mainly on ocean stratification and describe the linear growth of small perturbations in the system. Thus, monitoring particular indices of the ocean state could help predict a potential shutdown of the overturning circulation. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51087
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sévellec F.,Fedorov A.V.. Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: Predicting the AMOC regime shifts[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(10)