globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00296.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904489103
论文题名:
Long-memory effects in linear response models of Earth's temperature and implications for future global warming
作者: Rypdal M.; Rypdal K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:14
起始页码: 5240
结束页码: 5258
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Decomposition ; Global warming ; Solar energy ; Solar radiation ; Stochastic systems ; Time measurement ; Time series ; Volcanoes ; Deterministic component ; Forcing ; Global surface temperature ; Implications for futures ; Long-memory time series ; Maximum likelihood methods ; Statistical techniques ; Temperature reconstruction ; Stochastic models ; air temperature ; climate forcing ; global warming ; maximum likelihood analysis ; Northern Hemisphere ; sea surface ; stochasticity ; time series analysis ; volcanic aerosol ; weather
英文摘要: A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-invariant longrange memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems. The model is parameterized by an effective response strength, the stochastic forcing strength, and the memory exponent. The instrumental global surface temperature record and the deterministic component of the forcing are used to estimate these parameters by means of the maximumlikelihood method. The residual obtained by subtracting the deterministic solution from the observed record is analyzed as a noise process and shown to be consistent with a long-memory time series model and inconsistent with a short-memory model. By decomposing the forcing record in contributions from solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic activity one can estimate the contribution of each to twentieth-century global warming. The LRM model is applied with a reconstruction of the forcing for the last millenniumto predict the large-scale features of Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, and the analysis of the residual also clearly favors the LRM model on millennium time scale. The decomposition of the forcing shows that volcanic aerosols give a considerably greater contribution to the cooling during the Little Ice Age than the reduction in solar irradiance associated with the Maunder Minimum in solar activity. TheLRMmodel implies a transient climate response in agreement with IPCC projections, but the stronger response on longer time scales suggests replacing the notion of equilibrium climate sensitivity by a time scale-dependent sensitivity. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51095
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Rypdal M.,Rypdal K.. Long-memory effects in linear response models of Earth's temperature and implications for future global warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(14)
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