DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00190.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919725777
论文题名: Can we constrain CMIP5 rainfall projections in the tropical Pacific based on surface warming patterns?
作者: Grose M.R. ; Bhend J. ; Narsey S. ; Gupta A.S. ; Brown J.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 24 起始页码: 9123
结束页码: 9138
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Dynamical response
; Hemi-spheric asymmetries
; Rainfall patterns
; Sea-surface temperature change
; Spatial patterns
; Surface temperature changes
; Tropical Pacific ocean
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; precipitation assessment
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; trend analysis
; warming
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Climate warming has large implications for rainfall patterns, and identifying the most plausible pattern of rainfall change over the next century among various model projections would be valuable for future planning. The spatial pattern of projected sea surface temperature change has a key influence on rainfall changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here it is shown that simple indices of the size of the equatorial peak in the spatial pattern of warming and to a lesser extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming are useful for classifying the surface temperature change in different models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Models with a more pronounced equatorial warming show a fairly distinct rainfall response compared to those with more uniform warming, including a greater "warmer-get-wetter" or dynamical response, whereby rainfall increases follow the surface warming anomaly. Models with a more uniform warming pattern project a smaller rainfall increase at the equator and a rainfall increase in the southern tropical Pacific, a pattern that is distinct from the multimodel mean of CMIP5. Thus, the magnitude of enhanced equatorial warming and to some extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming provides a useful framework for constraining rainfall projections. While there is not a simple emergent constraint for enhanced equatorial warming in models in terms of past trends or bias in the current climate, further understanding of the various feedbacks involved in these features could lead to a useful constraint of rainfall for the Pacific region. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: CSIRO, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51131
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Grose M.R.,Bhend J.,Narsey S.,et al. Can we constrain CMIP5 rainfall projections in the tropical Pacific based on surface warming patterns?[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(24)