DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00761.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906862025
论文题名: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles
作者: Zhou B. ; Wen Q.H. ; Xu Y. ; Song L. ; Zhang X.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 17 起始页码: 6591
结束页码: 6611
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change detection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emission scenario
; Model uncertainties
; Multi-model ensemble
; Natural variability
; Precipitation extremes
; Projection uncertainty
; Climate change
英文摘要: This paper presents projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the end of the twenty-first century based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. The temporal changes and their spatial patterns in the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indices under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are analyzed. Compared to the reference period 1986-2005, substantial changes are projected in temperature and precipitation extremes under both emission scenarios. These changes include a decrease in cold extremes, an increase in warm extremes, and an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intermodel spread in the projection increases with time, with wider spread under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 for most indices, especially at the subregional scale. The difference in the projected changes under the two RCPs begins to emerge in the 2040s. Analyses based on the mixed-effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) model indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century, at the national scale, the dominant contributor to the projection uncertainty of most temperature-based indices, and some precipitation extremes [including maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and total extremely wet day total amount (R95p)], is the difference in emission scenarios. By the end of the twenty-first century, model uncertainty is the dominant factor at the regional scale and for the other indices. Natural variability can also play very important role. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51146
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast, Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Zhou B.,Wen Q.H.,Xu Y.,et al. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(17)