DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00251.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916204303
论文题名: Assessment of modes of interannual variability of southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models
作者: Grainger S. ; Frederiksen C.S. ; Zheng X.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 21 起始页码: 8107
结束页码: 8125
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate prediction
; General circulation model
; Interannual variability
; Ranking methods
; Southern Hemisphere
; Teleconnections
; Climate models
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ranking
; Southern Hemisphere
; teleconnection
英文摘要: An assessment is made of the modes of interannual variability in the seasonal mean summer and winter Southern Hemisphere (SH) 500-hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset. Modes of variability of both the slow (signal) and intraseasonal (noise) components in the CMIP5 models are evaluated against those estimated from reanalysis data. There is general improvement in the leading modes of the slow (signal) component in CMIP5 models compared with the CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset. The largest improvement is in the spatial structures of the modes related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability in SH summer. An overall score metric is significantly higher for CMIP5 over CMIP3 in both seasons. The leading modes in the intraseasonal noise component are generally well reproduced in CMIP5models, and there are few differences from CMIP3. A new total overall score metric is used to rank the CMIP5 models over both seasons. Weighting the seasons by the relative spread of overall scores is shown to be suitable for generating multimodel ensembles for further analysis of interannual variability. Inmultimodel ensembles, it is found that an ensemble of size 5 or 6 is sufficient in SH summer to reproducewell the dominant modes. In contrast, about 13 models are typically are required in SH winter. It is shown that it is necessary that the selected models individually reproduce well the leading modes of the slow component. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51181
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Grainger S.,Frederiksen C.S.,Zheng X.. Assessment of modes of interannual variability of southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(21)