DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84892524775
论文题名: Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation
作者: Wettstein J.J. ; Deser C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 2 起始页码: 527
结束页码: 550
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Atmospheric model
; Atmospheric teleconnection patterns
; Initial conditions
; Internal variability
; Maximum amplitude
; Sea level pressure
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Mechanical waves
; Meteorology
; Sea level
; Sea ice
; air-sea interaction
; amplitude
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; ice cover
; ice mechanics
; Rossby wave
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; teleconnection
; twenty first century
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate SystemModel, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000-61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse gas emissions scenario and differs only in the atmospheric model component's initial condition. September Arctic sea ice extent trends during 2020-59 range from -2.0×106 to -5.7×106km2 across the 39 ensemble members, indicating a substantial role for internal variability in future Arctic sea ice loss projections. Asimilar nearly threefold range (from -7.0×103 to -19×103km3) is foundfor summer sea ice volume trends. Higher rates of summer Arctic sea ice loss in CCSM3 are associated with enhanced transpolar drift and Fram Strait ice export driven by surface wind and sea level pressure patterns. Over the Arctic, the covarying atmospheric circulation patterns resemble the so-called Arctic dipole, with maximum amplitude between April and July. Outside the Arctic, an atmospheric Rossby wave train over the Pacific sector is associated with internal ice loss variability. Interannual covariability patterns between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are similar to those based on trends, suggesting that similar processes govern internal variability over a broad range of time scales. Interannual patterns of CCSM3 ice-atmosphere covariability compare well with those in nature and in the newer CCSM4 version of the model, lending confidence to the results. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns in CCSM3 suggest that the tropical Pacific modulates Arctic sea ice variability via the aforementioned Rossby wave train. Large ensembles with other coupled models are needed to corroborate these CCSM3-based findings. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51187
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wettstein J.J.,Deser C.. Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(2)