DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905164547
论文题名: More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
作者: Cowan T. ; Purich A. ; Perkins S. ; Pezza A. ; Boschat G. ; Sadler K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 15 起始页码: 5851
结束页码: 5871
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Heating
; Temperature
; Tropical engineering
; Anticyclones
; Australia
; Blocking
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Historical periods
; Maximum temperature
; Temperature anomaly
; Twentieth century
; Climatology
; anticyclone
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; future prospect
; high temperature
; spatial distribution
; summer
; tropical meteorology
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; winter
; Australia
英文摘要: Extremes such as summer heat waves and winter warm spells have a significant impact on the climate of Australia, with many regions experiencing an increase in the frequency and duration of these events since the mid-twentieth century. With the availability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, projected changes in heat waves and warm spells are investigated across Australia for two future emission scenarios. For the historical period encompassing the late twentieth century (1950-2005) an ensemble mean of 15 models is able to broadly capture the observed spatial distribution in the frequency and duration of summer heat waves, despite overestimating these metrics along coastal regions. The models achieve a better comparison to observations in their simulation of the temperature anomaly of the hottest heat waves. By the end of the twenty-first century, the model ensemble mean projects the largest increase in summer heat wave frequency and duration to occur across northern tropical regions, while projecting an increase of ~3°C in the maximum temperature of the hottest southern Australian heat waves. Model consensus suggests that future winter warm spells will increase in frequency and duration at a greater rate than summer heat waves, and that the hottest events will become increasingly hotter for both seasons by century's end. Even when referenced to a warming mean state, increases in the temperature of the hottest events are projected for southern Australia. Results also suggest that following a strong mitigation pathway in the future is more effective in reducing the frequency and duration of heat waves and warm spells in the southern regions compared to the northern tropical regions. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: ARC, Australian Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51197
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Cowan T.,Purich A.,Perkins S.,et al. More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(15)