DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00379.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899077008
论文题名: A framework for dynamical seasonal prediction of precipitation over the Pacific Islands
作者: Annamalai H. ; Hafner J. ; Kumar A. ; Wang H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 9 起始页码: 3272
结束页码: 3297
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Budget control
; Evaporation
; Forecasting
; Circulation anomalies
; Equatorial Pacific
; Moist static energy
; Precipitation anomalies
; Seasonal prediction
; South pacific convergence zones
; Subtropical anticyclone
; Three-step approach
; Climatology
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; Pacific islands
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: A three-step approach to develop a framework for dynamical seasonal prediction of precipitation over the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) is adopted. First, guided by the climatological features of basic variables, a view that climates of the USAPI are connected by large-scale phenomena involving the warm pool, South Pacific convergence zone, tropical monsoons, and subtropical anticyclone is proposed. Second, prediction skill in ensemble hindcasts performed with the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is evaluated with the hypothesis that ENSO is the leading candidate for large and persisting precipitation departures. Third, moist static energy budget diagnostics are performed to identify physical processes responsible for precipitation anomalies. At leads of 0-6 months, CFSv2 demonstrates useful skill in predicting Niño-3.4 SST and equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies. During El Niño, positive precipitation anomalies along the central (eastern) equatorial Pacific are anchored by net radiative flux (Frad) and moist advection (evaporation and Frad). The model's skill in predicting precipitation anomalies over South Pacific (Hawaiian) islands is highest (lowest). Over the west Pacific islands, the skill is low during the rainy season. During El Niño, skill over the USAPI, in particular predicting dryness persistence at long leads is useful. Suppressed precipitation over the Hawaiian and South Pacific (west Pacific) islands are determined by anomalous dry and cold air advection (reduced evaporation and Frad). These processes are local, but are dictated by circulation anomalies forced by ENSO. Model budget estimates are qualitatively consistent with those obtained from reanalysis, boosting confidence for societal benefits. However, observational constraints, as well as budget residuals, pose limitations. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51204
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Annamalai H.,Hafner J.,Kumar A.,et al. A framework for dynamical seasonal prediction of precipitation over the Pacific Islands[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(9)