DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00177.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899090364
论文题名: Uncertainty of concentration-terrestrial carbon feedback in earth system models
作者: Hajima T. ; Tachiiri K. ; Ito A. ; Kawamiya M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 9 起始页码: 3425
结束页码: 3445
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric composition
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Forestry
; Lakes
; Analytical approach
; Biogeochemical response
; Carbon accumulation
; Carbon cycle process
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Current quantities
; Earth system model
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Feedback
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon flux
; climate prediction
; concentration (composition)
; global climate
; terrestrial ecosystem
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Carbon uptake by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is called concentration-carbon feedback and is one of the carbon cycle feedbacks of the global climate. This feedback can have a major impact on climate projections with an uncertain magnitude. This paper focuses on the concentration-carbon feedback in terrestrial ecosystems, analyzing the mechanisms and strength of the feedback reproduced by Earth system models (ESMs) participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. It is confirmed that multiple ESMs driven by a common scenario show a large spread of concentration-carbon feedback strength among models. Examining the behavior of the carbon fluxes and pools of the models showed that the sensitivity of plant productivity to elevated CO2 is likely the key to reduce the spread, although increasing CO2 stimulates other carbon cycle processes. Simulations with a singleESMdriven by differentCO2 pathways demonstrated that carbon accumulation increases in scenarios with slower CO2 increase rates. Using both numerical and analytical approaches, the study showed that the difference among CO2 scenarios is a time lag of terrestrial carbon pools in response to atmospheric CO2 increase-a high rate ofCO2 increase results in smaller carbon accumulations than that in an equilibriumstate of a givenCO2 concentration. These results demonstrate that the current quantities for concentration-carbon feedback are incapable of capturing the feedback dependency on the carbon storage state and suggest that the concentration feedback can be larger for future scenarios where the CO2 growth rate is reduced. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51231
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Hajima T.,Tachiiri K.,Ito A.,et al. Uncertainty of concentration-terrestrial carbon feedback in earth system models[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(9)