DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00414.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904480032
论文题名: Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of relative humidity over West African monsoon region
作者: Broman D. ; Rajagopalan B. ; Hopson T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 14 起始页码: 5346
结束页码: 5363
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Cluster analysis
; Oceanography
; Regression analysis
; Atmospheric circulation
; K-means cluster analysis
; Linear predictive models
; Relative humidity variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Spatiotemporal variability
; Atmospheric humidity
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; cluster analysis
; monsoon
; numerical model
; regional climate
; regression analysis
; relative humidity
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; spatial variation
; temperature gradient
; temporal variation
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; West Africa
英文摘要: Spatial and temporal variability of relative humidity over the West African monsoon (WAM) region is investigated. In particular, the variability during the onset and retreat periods of the monsoon is considered. A K-means cluster analysis was performed to identify spatially coherent regions of relative humidity variability during the two periods. The cluster average of the relative humidity provides a robust representative index of the strength and timing of the transition periods between the dry and wet periods. Correlating the cluster indices with large-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures indicates that the land-ocean temperature gradient and the corresponding circulation, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and to a somewhat lesser extent tropical Pacific SSTs all play a role in modulating the timing of the monsoon season relative humidity onset and retreat. These connections to large-scale climate features were also found to be persistent over interseasonal time scales, and thus best linear predictive models were developed to enable skillful forecasts of relative humidity during the two periods at 15-75-day lead times. The public health risks due to meningitis epidemics are of grave concern to the population in this region, and these risks are strongly tied to regional humidity levels. Because of this linkage, the understanding and predictability of relative humidity variability is of use in meningitis epidemic risk mitigation, which motivated this research. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51241
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Broman D.,Rajagopalan B.,Hopson T.. Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of relative humidity over West African monsoon region[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(14)