DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904479641
论文题名: Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems
作者: Kim H.-M. ; Webster P.J. ; Toma V.E. ; Kim D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 14 起始页码: 5364
结束页码: 5378
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Climate prediction
; Hindcasts
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Model comparison
; Model errors
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; hindcasting
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; multivariate analysis
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The authors examine the predictability and prediction skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) of two ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast systems of ECMWF [Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS)] and NCEP [Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2)]. The VarEPS hindcasts possess five ensemble members for the period 1993-2009 and the CFSv2 hindcasts possess three ensemble members for the period 2000-09. Predictability and prediction skill are estimated by the bivariate correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Wheeler-Hendon real-time multivariate MJO index (RMM). MJO predictability is beyond 32 days lead time in both hindcasts, while the prediction skill is about 27 days in VarEPS and 21 days in CFSv2 as measured by the bivariate correlation exceeding 0.5. Both predictability and prediction skill of MJO are enhanced by averaging ensembles. Results show clearly that forecasts initialized with (or targeting) strong MJOs possess greater prediction skill compared to those initialized with (or targeting) weak or nonexistent MJOs. The predictability is insensitive to the initialMJOphase (or forecast target phase), although the prediction skill varies with MJO phases. A few common model issues are identified. In both hindcasts, the MJO propagation speed is slower and the MJO amplitude is weaker than observed. Also, both ensemble forecast systems are underdispersive, meaning that the growth rate of ensemble error is greater than the growth rate of the ensemble spread by lead time. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51259
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kim H.-M.,Webster P.J.,Toma V.E.,et al. Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(14)