DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00784.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907821756
论文题名: Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance
作者: Triacca U. ; Pasini A. ; Attanasio A. ; Giovannelli A. ; Lippi M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 20 起始页码: 7903
结束页码: 7910
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Prediction performance
; climate change
; climate forcing
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; Holocene
; paleoclimate
; paleotemperature
; performance assessment
; prediction
; Southern Hemisphere
; vector autoregression
英文摘要: It is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies have shown that greenhouse gases (GHGs) determined the trend of temperature (T) in the last half century, while circulation patterns contributed to modify its interannual, decadal, or multidecadal behavior over this period. Here temperature predictions based on vector autoregressive models (VARs) have been used to study the influence of GHGs and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on recent temperature behavior. It is found that in the last decades of steep temperature increase, ENSO shows just a very short-range influence on T, while GHGs are dominant for each forecast horizon. Conversely and quite surprisingly, in the previous quasi-stationary period the influences of GHGs and ENSO are comparable, even at longer range. Therefore, if the recent hiatus in global temperatures should persist into the near future, an enhancement of the role of ENSO can be expected. Finally, the predictive ability of GHGs is more evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where the temperature series is smoother. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51298
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy; Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Rome, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Triacca U.,Pasini A.,Attanasio A.,et al. Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(20)