DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00528.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907055601
论文题名: CO2-induced sahel greening in three CMIP5 earth system models
作者: Bathiany S. ; Claussen M. ; Brovkin V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 18 起始页码: 7163
结束页码: 7184
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Earth system model
; carbon cycle
; climate change
; climate modeling
; coupling
; twenty first century
; vegetation cover
; vegetation dynamics
; vegetation structure
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
英文摘要: The existence and productivity of vegetation is the basis for food and energy supply in the Sahel. Past changes in climate and vegetation abundance have raised the question whether the region could become greener in the future as a result of higher CO2 levels. By analyzing three Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with dynamic vegetation, the authors demonstrate why an answer to this question remains elusive in contrast to more robust projections of vegetation cover in the extratropics. First, it depends on the location and the time scale whether vegetation expands or retreats. Until the end of the twenty-first century, the threemodels agree on a substantial greening in the central and eastern Sahel due to increasedCO2 levels. This trend is reversed thereafter, and vegetation retreats in particular in thewestern Sahel because the beneficial effect of CO2 fertilization is short lived compared to climate change. Second, the vegetation cover changes are driven by different processes in different models (most importantly, precipitation change and CO2 fertilization). As these processes tend to oppose each other, the greening and browning trends are not a reliable result despite the apparentmodel agreement. The authors also find that the effect of vegetation dynamics on the surface energy balance crucially depends on the location. In contrast to the results of many previous studies, the Sahel appears as a hotspot where the physiological effects of CO2 can exert a cooling because vegetation structure and distribution overcompensate for the decreased stomatal conductance. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51326
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Centrum fu¨r Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit, Universita¨t Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Bathiany S.,Claussen M.,Brovkin V.. CO2-induced sahel greening in three CMIP5 earth system models[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(18)