Atmospheric pressure
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Climate forecasts
; In-phase
; Initial conditions
; Lead time
; North Pacific
; Out of phase
; Phase relationships
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Climatology
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Nucleopolyhedrovirus
英文摘要:
This work examines the impact of El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the prediction skill of North Pacific variability (NPV) in retrospective predictions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2. It is noted that the phase relationship between ENSO and NPV at initial conditions (ICs) affects the prediction skill of NPV. For average lead times of 0-6 months, the prediction skills of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in NPV (defined as the NPV index) increase from 0.42 to 0.63 from the cases of an out-of-phase relation between the Ni~no-3.4 and NPV indices in ICs to the cases of an in-phase relation. It is suggested that when ENSO and NPV are in phase in ICs, ENSO plays a constructive role in the NPV development and enhances its signals. Nevertheless, when ENSO and NPV are out of phase, some pronounced positive NPV events are still predictable. In these cases, the North Pacific is dominated by strong positive SSTAs, which may overcome the opposing influence from the tropical Pacific and display predictability.
资助项目:
NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Center for Data Assimilation Research and Application, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Hu Z.-Z.,Kumar A.,Huang B.,et al. Prediction skill of north pacific variability in NCEP climate forecast system version 2: Impact of ENSO and beyond[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(11)