globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00625.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905167593
论文题名:
How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones associated with ENSO?
作者: Wang H.; Long L.; Kumar A.; Wang W.; Schemm J.-K.E.; Zhao M.; Vecchi G.A.; Larow T.E.; Lim Y.-K.; Schubert S.D.; Shaevitz D.A.; Camargo S.J.; Henderson N.; Kim D.; Jonas J.A.; Walsh K.J.E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:15
起始页码: 5673
结束页码: 5692
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Climate models ; Hurricanes ; Anomaly correlations ; ENSO ; Global climate model ; Interannual variability ; Model comparison ; Multi-model ensemble ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Tropical cyclone ; Computer simulation ; annual variation ; climate modeling ; climate variation ; computer simulation ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; global climate ; storm track ; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multimodel ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Niño and stronger activity during La Niña. For CP El Niño, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Niño. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region during CP El Niño as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51345
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, I.M. Systems Group, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Wang H.,Long L.,Kumar A.,et al. How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones associated with ENSO?[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(15)
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