DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00744.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904497230
论文题名: Interdecadal change in South China Sea tropical cyclone frequency in association with zonal sea surface temperature gradient
作者: Li R.C.Y. ; Zhou W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 14 起始页码: 5468
结束页码: 5480
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Spectrum analysis
; Thermal gradients
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Atmospheric circulation
; Environmental conditions
; Inter-decadal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Northern indian oceans
; Sea Surface Temperature gradients
; Tropical cyclone
; Atmospheric movements
; air-sea interaction
; algorithm
; atmospheric circulation
; correlation
; cyclogenesis
; decadal variation
; detection method
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; spectral analysis
; temperature gradient
; tropical cyclone
; Walker circulation
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; South China Sea
英文摘要: This study investigates the interdecadal changes in summertime tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979-2010. Based on changepoint detection algorithms and spectral analysis, two inactive TC periods (period 1: 1979-93 and period 3: 2003-10) and one active TC period (period 2: 1994-2002) have been identified, with a dominant spectral peak of approximately 9-10 yr. Correlation analysis further reveals a significant negative relationship between TC frequency and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSG) between the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP) at both interannual and interdecadal time scales. That is, a positive ZSG between the NIO and theWNPtends to suppress cyclogenesis over the SCS, whereas a negative ZSG is generally favorable for SCS TC formation. The negative connection between cyclogenesis and ZSG may be explained by the influences of the ZSG on atmospheric circulations as well as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the SCS, which reveal prominent contrasts during the study periods. A positive ZSG between the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean induces an anomalous Walker-like circulation, which results in an anomalous subsidence and boundary layer divergence over the northern SCS. This also suppresses the moisture as well as MJO activity over the SCS, leading to a significant reduction in TC frequency during inactive periods 1 and 3. In contrast, a negative ZSG induces surface westerlies and favorable environmental conditions for TCs, thereby greatly enhancing SCS cyclogenesis during period 2. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51368
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Li R.C.Y.,Zhou W.. Interdecadal change in South China Sea tropical cyclone frequency in association with zonal sea surface temperature gradient[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(14)