DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00427.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84900437294
论文题名: North sea storminess from a novel storm surge record since AD 1843
作者: Dangendorf S. ; Müller-Navarra S. ; Jensen J. ; Schenk F. ; Wahl T. ; Weisse R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 10 起始页码: 3582
结束页码: 3595
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Water levels
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Coastal communities
; Long-term changes
; Long-term trend
; Pressure field
; Pressure reading
; Statistical relationship
; Twentieth century
; Storms
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; nineteenth century
; observational method
; pressure field
; storm surge
; trend analysis
; twentieth century
; weather forecasting
; wind field
; Atlantic Ocean
; North Sea
英文摘要: The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51371
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany; German Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Linné Flow Centre, Department of Mechanics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, United States; Research Centre Siegen (FoKoS), University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Dangendorf S.,Müller-Navarra S.,Jensen J.,et al. North sea storminess from a novel storm surge record since AD 1843[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(10)