DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00612.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902096330
论文题名: African climate change uncertainty in perturbed physics ensembles: Implications of global warming to 4°C and beyond
作者: James R. ; Washington R. ; Rowell D.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 12 起始页码: 4677
结束页码: 4692
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Global warming
; Climate prediction
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Equatorial Africa
; Global temperatures
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation change
; Regional climate changes
; Regional differences
; Uncertainty analysis
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; uncertainty analysis
; Africa
英文摘要: The importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 48C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51410
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Research Lab, Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
James R.,Washington R.,Rowell D.P.. African climate change uncertainty in perturbed physics ensembles: Implications of global warming to 4°C and beyond[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(12)