DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00505.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916200113
论文题名: Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HiRAM model
作者: Camargo S.J. ; Tippett M.K. ; Sobel A.H. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Zhao M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 24 起始页码: 9171
结束页码: 9196
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric humidity
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Climate forcings
; Climate scenarios
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Saturation deficit
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal patterns
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cyclogenesis
; probability
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; spatial resolution
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: Tropical cyclone genesis indices (TCGIs) are functions of the large-scale environment that are designed to be proxies for the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. While the performance of TCGIs in the current climate can be assessed by direct comparison to TC observations, their ability to represent future TC activity based on projections of the large-scale environment cannot. Here the authors examine the performance of TCGIs in high-resolution atmospheric model simulations forced with sea surface temperatures (SST) of future, warmer climate scenarios. They investigate whether the TCGIs derived for the present climate can, when computed from large-scale fields taken from future climate simulations, capture the simulated global mean decreases in TC frequency. The TCGIs differ in their choice of environmental predictors, and several choices of predictors perform well in the present climate. However, some TCGIs that perform well in the present climate do not accurately reproduce the simulated future decrease in TC frequency. This decrease is captured when the humidity predictor is the column saturation deficit rather than relative humidity. Using saturation deficit with relative SST as the other thermodynamic predictor overpredicts the TC frequency decrease, while using potential intensity in place of relative SST as the other thermodynamic predictor gives a good prediction of the decrease's magnitude. These positive results appear to depend on the spatial and seasonal patterns in the imposed SST changes; none of the indices capture correctly the frequency decrease in simulations with spatially uniform climate forcings, whether a globally uniform increase in SST of 2K, or a doubling of CO2 with no change in SST. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; ONR, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51436
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Camargo S.J.,Tippett M.K.,Sobel A.H.,et al. Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HiRAM model[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(24)