globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00283.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901824608
论文题名:
Trends in extreme U.S. temperatures
作者: Lee J.; Li S.; Lund R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:11
起始页码: 4209
结束页码: 4225
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Climatology ; General structures ; Maximum and minimum temperatures ; Maximum temperature ; Minimum temperatures ; Regularity condition ; Spatial smoothing ; Stationary time series ; Western United States ; Time series ; air temperature ; extreme event ; global warming ; trend analysis ; United States
英文摘要: This paper develops trend estimation techniques for monthly maximum and minimum temperature time series observed in the 48 conterminous United States over the last century. While most scientists concur that this region has warmed on aggregate, there is no a priori reason to believe that temporal trends in extremes and averages will exhibit the same patterns. Indeed, under minor regularity conditions, the sample partial sum and maximum of stationary time series are asymptotically independent (statistically). Previous authors have suggested that minimum temperatures are warming faster than maximum temperatures in the United States; such an aspect can be investigated via the methods discussed in this study. Here, statistical models with extreme value and changepoint features are used to estimate trends and their standard errors. A spatial smoothing is then done to extract general structure. The results show that monthly maximum temperatures are not often greatly changing-perhaps surprisingly, there are many stations that show some cooling. In contrast, the minimum temperatures show significant warming. Overall, the southeastern United States shows the least warming (even some cooling), and the western United States, northern Midwest, and New England have experienced the most warming. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation ; NSF, National Science Foundation
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:28   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51457
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, 1910 University Dr, Boise, ID 83725, United States; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States

Recommended Citation:
Lee J.,Li S.,Lund R.. Trends in extreme U.S. temperatures[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(11)
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