DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00163.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919772817
论文题名: Impact of atmosphere and land surface initial conditions on seasonal forecasts of global surface temperature
作者: Materia S. ; Borrelli A. ; Bellucci A. ; Alessandri A. ; di Pietro P. ; Athanasiadis P. ; Navarra A. ; Gualdi S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 24 起始页码: 9253
结束页码: 9271
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Soil moisture
; Surface measurement
; Coupled models
; Dependent variables
; Forecast verification/skill
; Global surface temperature
; Individual components
; Mediterranean region
; Model initialization
; Seasonal forecasting
; Weather forecasting
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; atmospheric modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; land surface
; prediction
; surface temperature
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Tropical)
; Mediterranean Region
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a hierarchy of seasonal forecast experiments performed under different initialization strategies.Arealistic atmospheric initial state allows an improved equilibrium between the ocean and overlying atmosphere, increasing the model predictive skill in the ocean. In fact, in regions characterized by strong air-sea coupling, the atmosphere initial condition affects forecast skill for several months. In particular, the ENSO region, eastern tropical Atlantic, andNorth Pacific benefit significantly fromthe atmosphere initialization.Onthemainland, the effect of atmospheric initial conditions is detected in the early phase of the forecast, while the quality of land surface initialization affects forecast skill in the following seasons. Winter forecasts in the high-latitude plains benefit fromthe snow initialization, while the impact of soil moisture initial state is particularly effective in the Mediterranean region and central Asia. However, the initialization strategy based on the full value technique may not be the best choice for land surface, since soil moisture is a strongly model-dependent variable: in fact, initialization through land surface reanalysis does not systematically guarantee a skill improvement. Nonetheless, using a different initialization strategy for land, as opposed to atmosphere and ocean, may generate inconsistencies. Overall, the introduction of a realistic initialization for land and atmosphere substantially increases skill and accuracy.However, further developments in the procedure for land surface initialization are required for more accurate seasonal forecasts. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51468
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile, Rome, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Materia S.,Borrelli A.,Bellucci A.,et al. Impact of atmosphere and land surface initial conditions on seasonal forecasts of global surface temperature[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(24)