DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00010.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890136036
论文题名: Projected changes in late-twenty-first-century tropical cyclone frequency in 13 coupled climate models from phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project
作者: Tory K.J. ; Chand S.S. ; Mcbride J.L. ; Ye H. ; Dare R.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 24 起始页码: 9946
结束页码: 9959
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes
; Atmospheric reanalysis data
; Classification technique
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Cyclogenesis/cyclolysis
; Emission scenario
; Northern Hemispheres
; Climate change
; Detectors
; Hurricanes
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; climatology
; Northern Hemisphere
; tropical cyclone
; twenty first century
英文摘要: Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency under anthropogenic climate change are examined for 13 global models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the Okubo- Weiss-Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC-detection method developed by the authors in earlier papers. The method detects large-scale conditions within which TCs form. It was developed and tuned in atmospheric reanalysis data and then applied without change to the climate models to ensure model and detector independence. Changes in TC frequency are determined by comparing TC detections in the CMIP5 historical runs (1970-2000) with high emission scenario (representative concentration pathway 8.5) future runs (2070-2100). A number of the models project increases in frequency of higher-latitude tropical cyclones in the late twenty-first century. Inspection reveals that these high-latitude systems were subtropical in origin and are thus eliminated from the analysis using an objective classification technique. TC detections in 8 of the 13 models reproduce observed TC formation numbers and geographic distributions reasonably well, with annual numbers within ±50% of observations. TC detections in the remaining five models are particularly low in number (10%-28%of observed). The eight models with a reasonable TC climatology all project decreases in global TC frequency varying between 7% and 28%. Large intermodel and interbasin variations in magnitude and sign are present, with the greatest variations in the Northern Hemisphere basins. These results are consistent with results from earlier-generation climate models and thus confirm the robustness of coupled model projections of globally reduced TC frequency. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51485
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, Ballarat, VIC, Australia; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Tory K.J.,Chand S.S.,Mcbride J.L.,et al. Projected changes in late-twenty-first-century tropical cyclone frequency in 13 coupled climate models from phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(24)