DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00564.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890189540
论文题名: Comparison of short-term and long-term radiative feedbacks and variability in twentieth-century global climate model simulations
作者: Dalton M.M. ; Shell K.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 24 起始页码: 10051
结束页码: 10070
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anomalies
; Climate sensitivity
; Energy budget/balance
; Global climate model
; Global climate model simulations
; Natural variability
; Northern Hemispheres
; Seasonal cycle
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Estimation
; Solar radiation
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water vapor
; Feedback
; albedo
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; energy balance
; Northern Hemisphere
; radiative forcing
; seasonal variation
; twentieth century
; water vapor
英文摘要: The climate sensitivity uncertainty of global climate models (GCMs) is partly due to the spread of individual feedbacks. One approach to constrain long-term climate sensitivity is to use the relatively short observational record, assuming there exists some relationship in feedbacks between short and long records. The present work tests this assumption by regressing short-term feedback metrics, characterized by the 20-yr feedback as well as interannual and intra-annual metrics, against long-term longwave water vapor, longwave atmospheric temperature, and shortwave surface albedo feedbacks calculated from 13 twentieth-century GCM simulations. Estimates of long-term feedbacks derived from reanalysis observations and statistically significant regressions are consistent with but no more constrained than earlier estimates. For the interannual metric, natural variability contributes to the feedback uncertainty, reducing the ability to estimate the interannual behavior from one 20-yr time slice. For both the interannual and intra-annual metrics, uncertainty in the intermodel relationships between 20-yr metrics and 100-yr feedbacks also contributes to the feedback uncertainty. Because of differences in time scales of feedback processes, relationships between the 20-yr interannual metric and 100-yr water vapor and atmospheric temperature feedbacks are significant for only one feedback calculation method. The intra-annual and surface albedo relationships show more complex behavior, though positive correspondence between Northern Hemisphere surface albedo intra-annual metrics and 100-yr feedbacks is consistent with previous studies. Many relationships between 20-yr metrics and 100-yr feedbacks are sensitive to the specific GCMs included, highlighting that care should be taken when inferring long-term feedbacks from short-term observations. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51488
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dalton M.M.,Shell K.M.. Comparison of short-term and long-term radiative feedbacks and variability in twentieth-century global climate model simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(24)