DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00262.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890234156
论文题名: Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity
作者: Kossin J.P. ; Olander T.L. ; Knapp K.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 24 起始页码: 9960
结束页码: 9976
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Trends
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; Linear matrix inequalities
; Storms
; Hurricanes
; algorithm
; climate change
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; hurricane
; precipitation intensity
; satellite data
; trend analysis
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (South)
英文摘要: The historical global ''best track'' records of tropical cyclones extend back to the mid-nineteenth century in some regions, but formal analysis of these records is encumbered by temporal heterogeneities in the data. This is particularly problematic when attempting to detect trends in tropical cyclone metrics that may be attributable to climate change. Here the authors apply a state-of-the-art automated algorithm to a globally homogenized satellite data record to create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period 1982-2009, and utilize this record to investigate the robustness of trends found in the besttrack data. In particular, the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) achieved by each reported storm is calculated and the frequency distribution of LMI is tested for changes over this period. To address the unique issues in regions around the Indian Ocean, which result from a discontinuity introduced into the satellite data in 1998, a direct homogenization procedure is applied in which post-1998 data are degraded to pre-1998 standards. This additional homogenization step is found to measurably reduce LMI trends, but the global trends in the LMI of the strongest storms remain positive, with amplitudes of around +1ms-1 decade-1 and p value 5 0.1. Regional trends, in ms-1 decade-1, vary from -2 (p = 0.03) in the western North Pacific, +1.7 (p = 0.06) in the south Indian Ocean, +2.5 (p = 0.09) in the South Pacific, to 18 (p < 0.001) in the North Atlantic. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: ONR, Office of Naval Research
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51514
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States; Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kossin J.P.,Olander T.L.,Knapp K.R.. Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(24)