DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00751.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888058790
论文题名: If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase?
作者: MacDougall A.H. ; Eby M. ; Weaver A.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 23 起始页码: 9563
结束页码: 9576
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic CO
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Carbon cycles
; Earth system model
; Radiative forcings
; Sulfate aerosols
; Terrestrial biosphere
; Victoria Earth System Climate Model
; Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Permafrost
; Carbon dioxide
; aerosol
; anthropogenic source
; biosphere
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; carbon sink
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; greenhouse gas
; permafrost
; radiative forcing
; warming
英文摘要: If anthropogenic CO2 emissions were to suddenly cease, the evolution of the atmospheric CO2 concentration would depend on the magnitude and sign of natural carbon sources and sinks. Experiments using Earth system models indicate that the overall carbon sinks dominate, such that upon the cessation of anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric CO2 levels decrease over time. However, these models have typically neglected the permafrost carbon pool, which has the potential to introduce an additional terrestrial source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here, the authors use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), which has recently been expanded to include permafrost carbon stocks and exchanges with the atmosphere. In a scenario of zeroed CO2 and sulfate aerosol emissions, whether the warming induced by specified constant concentrations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases could slow the CO2 decline following zero emissions or even reverse this trend and cause CO2 to increase over time is assessed. It is found that a radiative forcing from non-CO2 gases of approximately 0.6 W m-2 results in a near balance of CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere and uptake of CO2 by the oceans, resulting in near-constant atmospheric CO2 concentrations for at least a century after emissions are eliminated. At higher values of non-CO2 radiative forcing, CO2 concentrations increase over time, regardless of when emissions cease during the twenty-first century. Given that the present-day radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gases is about 0.95 W m-2, the results suggest that if all CO2 and aerosols emissions were eliminated without also decreasing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions CO2 levels would increase over time, resulting in a small increase in climate warming associated with this positive permafrost-carbon feedback. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51523
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada
Recommended Citation:
MacDougall A.H.,Eby M.,Weaver A.J.. If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase?[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(23)