DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00404.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888044350
论文题名: Hydrological cycles over the Congo and Upper Blue Nile basins: Evaluation of general circulation model simulations and reanalysis products
作者: Siam M.S. ; Demory M.-E. ; Eltahir E.A.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 22 起始页码: 8881
结束页码: 8894
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Degree of uncertainty
; General circulation model
; General circulation model simulations
; Horizontal resolution
; Hydrologic cycles
; Hydrological variables
; Hydrometeorology
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Hydrology
; Climate change
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; hydrological cycle
; hydrometeorology
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; soil water
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; water budget
; Blue Nile Basin
; Congo
; Nile Basin
英文摘要: The simulations and predictions of the hydrological cycle by general circulation models (GCMs) are characterized by a significant degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in the range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) GCM predictions of future changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly over major African basins. The confidence in GCM predictions can be increased by evaluating different GCMs, identifying those models that succeed in simulating the hydrological cycle under current climate conditions, and using them for climate change studies. Reanalyses are often used to validate GCMs, but they also suffer from an inaccurate representation of the hydrological cycle. In this study, the aim is to identify GCMs and reanalyses' products that provide a realistic representation of the hydrological cycle over the Congo and upper Blue Nile (UBN) basins. Atmospheric and soil water balance constraints are employed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce the observed streamflow, which is the most accurate measurement of the hydrological cycle. Among the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and 40-yr ECWMF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), ERA-Interim shows the best performance over these basins: it balances the water budgets and accurately represents the seasonal cycle of the hydrological variables. The authors find that most GCMs used by the IPCC overestimate the hydrological cycle compared to observations. They observe some improvement in the simulated hydrological cycle with increased horizontal resolution, which suggests that some of the high-resolution GCMs are better suited for climate change studies over Africa. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51545
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Siam M.S.,Demory M.-E.,Eltahir E.A.B.. Hydrological cycles over the Congo and Upper Blue Nile basins: Evaluation of general circulation model simulations and reanalysis products[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(22)