DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00538.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888025440
论文题名: Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Current climate simulations
作者: Bukovsky M.S. ; Gochis D.J. ; Mearns L.O.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 22 起始页码: 8802
结束页码: 8826
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Coupled global climate model
; Monsoons
; North America
; North American Monsoon System
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional model
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; global climate
; monsoon
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; Gulf of California
; Mexico [North America]
; Pacific Ocean
; United States
英文摘要: The authors examine 17 dynamically downscaled simulations produced as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for their skill in reproducing the North American monsoon system. The focus is on precipitation and the drivers behind the precipitation biases seen in the simulations of the current climate. Thus, a process-based approach to the question of model fidelity is taken in order to help assess confidence in this suite of simulations. The results show that the regional climate models (RCMs) forced with a reanalysis product and atmosphere-only global climate model (AGCM) time-slice simulations perform reasonably well over the core Mexican and southwest United States regions. Some of the dynamically downscaled simulations do, however, have strong dry biases in Arizona that are related to their inability to develop credible monsoon flow structure over the Gulf of California. When forced with different atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) for the current period, the skill of the RCMs subdivides largely by the skill of the forcing or "parent" AOGCM. How the inherited biases affect the RCM simulations is investigated. While it is clear that the AOGCMs have a large influence on the RCMs, the authors also demonstrate where the regional models add value to the simulations and discuss the differential credibility of the six RCMs (17 total simulations), two AGCM time slices, and four AOGCMs examined herein. It is found that in-depth analysis of parent GCM and RCM scenarios can identify a meaningful subset of models that can produce credible simulations of the North American monsoon precipitation. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; EPA, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51547
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bukovsky M.S.,Gochis D.J.,Mearns L.O.. Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Current climate simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(22)